CO<sub>2</sub> sources from a mass-balance inversion: sensitivity to the surface constraint

Rachel M. Law

doi:10.3402/tellusb.v51i2.16281

CO₂ sources from a mass-balance inversion: sensitivity to the surface constraint

Author:

Rachel M. Law

Cooperative Research Centre for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology, Monash University, Wellington Road, Clayton, Victoria 3168, AU

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Abstract

Carbon dioxide sources for 1981–1995 are calculated using a mass-balance inversion method. Options for deriving a suitable surface constraint for the model from the available observed data are assessed. A new method, in which the longitudinal variation in the observations is accounted for, is compared to a more conventional spline fit to the data. This new constraint is applied either to the zonal mean concentration or to the concentration at all grid points. The results indicate relatively large differences between long-term mean regional sources but relatively good agreement of the interannual variations. The global and tropical sources estimated show a surprising relationship to the southern oscillation index; maximum correlation occurs for CO₂ sources leading the SOI by around 9 months.

How to Cite: Law, R.M., 1999. CO₂ sources from a mass-balance inversion: sensitivity to the surface constraint. Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, 51(2), pp.254–265. DOI: http://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v51i2.16281

Accepted on 14 Sep 1998 Submitted on 1 Dec 1997

References

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Marland , G. , and Boden , T . 1997 . Estimates of global, regional, and national annual CO2-emissions from fossil-fuel burning, hydraulic cement production, and gas flaring : 1950 - 1994 . NDP-030R7 Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory .

Masarie , K. A. and Tans , P. P . 1995 . Extension and integration of atmospheric carbon dioxide data into a globally consistent measurement record . J. Geophys. Res . 100 , 11593 – 11610 .

Rayner , P. J. , Enting , I. G. , Francey , R. J. and Langen-felds , R. L . 1999a . Reconstructing the recent carbon cycle from atmospheric CO2, PC and 02/N2 obser-vations . Tellus , this issue .

Rayner , P. J. , Law , R. M. and Dargaville , R. J . 1999b . The relationship between tropical CO2 fluxes and the El Nifio-Southern Oscillation . Geophys. Res. Lett ., in press .

Tans , P. P. , Conway , T. J. and Nakazawa , T . 1989 . Latitudinal distribution of the sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide derived from surface observations and an atmospheric transport model . J. Geophys. Res . 94 , 5151 – 5172 .

Tans , P. P. , Fung , I. Y. and Takahashi , T . 1990 . Observa-tional constraints on the global atmospheric CO2 budget . Science 247 , 1431 – 1438 .

[CIT0001] Bacastow , R. B . 1976 . Modulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the southern oscillation . Nature 261 , 116 – 118 .

[CIT0002] Bousquet , P. , Ciais , P. , Monfray , P. , Balkanski , Y. , Ramonet , M. and Tans , P . 1996 . Influence of two atmospheric transport models on inferring sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 . Tellus 48B , 568 – 582 .

[CIT0003] Ciais , P. , Tans , P. P. , White , J. W. C. , Trolier , M. , Francey , R. J. , Berry , J. A. , Randall , D. R. , Sellers, P. J. , Collatz , J. G. and Schimel , D. S. 1995 . Partitioning of ocean and land uptake of CO2 as inferred by PC measurements from the NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory Global Air Sampling Network . J. Geophys. Res . 100 , 5051 – 5070 .

[CIT0004] Conway , T. J. , Tans , P. P. , Waterman , L. S. , Thoning , K. W. , Kitzis , D. R. , Masarie , K. A. and Zhang , N . 1994a . Evidence for interannual variability of the carbon cycle from the National Oceanic and Atmo-spheric Administration/Climate Monitoring and Dia-gnostics Laboratory Global Air Sampling Network . J. Geophys. Res . 99 , 22831 – 22855 .

[CIT0005] Conway , T. J. , Tans , P. P. and Waterman , L. S . 1994b . Atmospheric CO2 records from sites in the NOAA/ CMDL air sampling network. Trends '93: A compendium of data on global change , T. Boden , D. Kaiser , R. Sepanski and F. Stoss (eds .).

[CIT0006] Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge, USA , 41 – 119 .

[CIT0007] Ebisuzaki, W. 1997. A method to estimate the statistical significance of a correlation when the data are serially correlated. J. Climate 10 , 2147 – 2153 .

[CIT0008] Enting , I. G . 1987 . On the use of smoothing splines to filter CO2 data . J. Geophys. Res. 92D , 10977 - 10984 .

[CIT0009] Enting , I. G. and Mansbridge , J. V. 1989 . Seasonal sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2: direct inversion of filtered data . Tellus 41B , 111 – 126 .

[CIT0010] Enting , I. G. and Mansbridge , J.V . 1991 . Latitudinal distribution of sources and sinks of CO2: results of an inversion study . Tellus 43B , 156 – 170 .

[CIT0011] Enting , I. G. , Trudinger , C. M. and Francey , R. J . 1995 . A synthesis inversion of the concentration and S“C of atmospheric CO2 . Tellus 47B , 35 – 52 .

[CIT0012] Francey , R. J. , Tans , P. P. , Allison , C. E. , Enting , I. G. , White , J. W. C. and Trolier , M . 1995 . Changes in oceanic and terrestrial carbon uptake since 1982 . Nature 373 , 326 – 330 .

[CIT0013] Keeling , C. D. , Whorf , T. P. , Wahlen , M. and Van der Plicht , J . 1995 . Interannual extremes in the rate of rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1980 . Nature 375 , 666 – 670 .

[CIT0014] Koch , S. E. , DesJardins , M. and Kocin , P. J . 1983 . An interactive Barnes objective map analysis scheme for use with satellite and conventional data . J. Climate Appl. Meteor . 22 , 1487 – 1503 .

[CIT0015] Law , R. , Simmonds , I. and Budd , W. F . 1992 . Application of an atmospheric tracer model to the high southern latitudes . Tellus 44B , 358 – 370 .

[CIT0016] Law , R. , and Simmonds , I . 1996 . The sensitivity of deduced CO2 sources and sinks to variations in trans-port and imposed surface concentrations . Tellus 48B , 613 – 625 .

[CIT0017] Law , R. M. , Rayner , P. J. , Denning , A. S. , Erickson , D. , Fung , I. Y. , Heimann , M. , Piper , S. C. , Ramonet , M. , Taguchi , S. , Taylor , J. A. , Trudinger , C. M. and Wafter-son , I. G . 1996 . Variations in modelled atmospheric transport of carbon dioxide and the consequences for CO2 inversions . Glob. Biogeochem. Cyc . 10 , 483 – 496 .

[CIT0018] Marland , G. , Boden , T. A. , Griffin , R. C. , Huang , S. F. , Kanciruk , P. and Nelson , T. R . 1989 . Estimates of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement manufac-turing, based on the US Bureau of Mines cement manu-facturing data. ORNL/CDIAC-25,NDP-030 Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory .

[CIT0019] Marland , G. , and Boden , T . 1997 . Estimates of global, regional, and national annual CO2-emissions from fossil-fuel burning, hydraulic cement production, and gas flaring : 1950 - 1994 . NDP-030R7 Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory .

[CIT0020] Masarie , K. A. and Tans , P. P . 1995 . Extension and integration of atmospheric carbon dioxide data into a globally consistent measurement record . J. Geophys. Res . 100 , 11593 – 11610 .

[CIT0021] Rayner , P. J. , Enting , I. G. , Francey , R. J. and Langen-felds , R. L . 1999a . Reconstructing the recent carbon cycle from atmospheric CO2, PC and 02/N2 obser-vations . Tellus , this issue .

[CIT0022] Rayner , P. J. , Law , R. M. and Dargaville , R. J . 1999b . The relationship between tropical CO2 fluxes and the El Nifio-Southern Oscillation . Geophys. Res. Lett ., in press .

[CIT0023] Tans , P. P. , Conway , T. J. and Nakazawa , T . 1989 . Latitudinal distribution of the sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide derived from surface observations and an atmospheric transport model . J. Geophys. Res . 94 , 5151 – 5172 .

[CIT0024] Tans , P. P. , Fung , I. Y. and Takahashi , T . 1990 . Observa-tional constraints on the global atmospheric CO2 budget . Science 247 , 1431 – 1438 .

Reading: CO2 sources from a mass-balance inversion: sensitivity to the surface constraint

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