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    Reading: Contributions of carbon cycle uncertainty to future climate projection spread

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    Original Research Papers

    Contributions of carbon cycle uncertainty to future climate projection spread

    Authors:

    C. Huntingford ,

    Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, GB
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    J. A. Lowe,

    Reading Unit, Met Office Hadley Centre, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, GB
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    B. B. B. Booth,

    Met Office Hadley Centre, GB
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    C. D. Jones,

    Met Office Hadley Centre, GB
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    G. R. Harris,

    Met Office Hadley Centre, GB
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    L. K. Gohar,

    Reading Unit, Met Office Hadley Centre, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, GB
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    P. Meir

    School of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh, GB
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    Abstract

    We have characterized the relative contributions to uncertainty in predictions of global warming amount by year 2100 in the C4MIP model ensemble (Friedlingstein et al., 2006) due to both carbon cycle process uncertainty and uncertainty in the physical climate properties of the Earth system. We find carbon cycle uncertainty to be important. On average the spread in transient climate response is around 40% of that due to the more frequently debated uncertainties in equilibrium climate sensitivity and global heat capacity.

    This result is derived by characterizing the influence of different parameters in a global climate-carbon cycle ‘box’ model that has been calibrated against the 11 General Circulation models (GCMs) and Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) in the C4MIP ensemble; a collection of current state-of-the-art climate models that include an explicit representation of the global carbon cycle.

    How to Cite: Huntingford, C., Lowe, J.A., Booth, B.B.B., Jones, C.D., Harris, G.R., Gohar, L.K. and Meir, P., 2009. Contributions of carbon cycle uncertainty to future climate projection spread. Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, 61(2), pp.355–360. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2008.00414.x
      Published on 01 Jan 2009
    Peer Reviewed
     CC BY 4.0
     Accepted on 15 Dec 2008            Submitted on 7 Jun 2008

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